Faster offers, more competitive offers and higher prices are on the horizon somewhere, and it could be this spring and summer.
Now, proceed to ask your search tool: “What have the U.S. housing prices done in the last 30 years?” Yes, it’s had its volatility, but the answer I got was that home prices nationally have increased roughly more than 290%.
For the last question before we dig into the data, ask: “What is the U.S. population today compared to 30 years ago?” You’re going to have to either really Google that one or finish this article for that answer.
Noise Vs. Actual Impact
I want to start out by fully disclaiming that my focus is on housing and on the local housing market. I do not wish for my commentary here to be insensitive to the feelings and emotions of the reader. That said, 2026 is only about a quarter of the year over and has had a whirlwind of world and economic events. It’s enough to make one’s head spin! Yes, some historic events have had drastic impacts on housing and personal finances but often there is far more noise than actual impact.
In a quick rough online estimate on MSNBC/NBC’s housing articles and commentary, ChatGPT summarizes their sentiment in the last 10 years as 70-85% negative, 10-20% neutral and 5-15% positive. As we’re more aware of how media engages us, we understand this is simply how the machine works: American News has a bias to negative: it gets more clicks, more views and therefore, more money.
Just coming off of the Great Recession, everyone would have told you to think twice before buying a house. Real pain had just been inflicted on millions of households. However, in the past 30 years, 2012 was probably the best time to buy a house, maybe even in the last 50 years under certain comparisons. The takeaway here is that if you are trying to make a housing decision, you need do two things: (1) Look at your personal financial picture and determine if this is a good time and a mid-long-term decision; and, (2) Look at your specific local market and determine the opportunity. For the rest of this article, we’ll do the latter.
The Island
Inventory is one of the biggest complaints about the housing market and certainly an issue in Flagstaff. The “island economy” that prevails here is one of the biggest culprits. The lack of developable land and affordable building costs have been a major drag on the ability for inventory to keep up with the ever-growing interest in “our island.”
So, let’s get to that answer for the last question from paragraph one: 80 million. There are 80 million more people walking around in our country than there were 30 years ago. No one prepared for that type of population growth. We have more people wanting to form households and rent or buy right now, than we’ve ever experienced in our 250 years as a country. Not only that, but our Flagstaff island is a major destination for millions of tourists and second homeowners.
It’s more anecdote than actual provable fact but I promise you my phone rings more and my home loan applications increase the minute that Phoenix temperatures hit over 100 degrees. I’m no meteorologist but it feels like that was in the June timeframe so at least the locals got to have a first go at the spring market before the second homeowners came scrabbling up the 17 to get out of the heat.
Well, this year, March 18 was their first day of over 100 degrees, which was its earliest in recorded history (March 26, 1988, was the previous earliest for those trivia addicts out there). Whether it’s parents buying housing for their Northern Arizona University students, second homeowners, investors, short-term rental landlords or just people like you and me who want to live here and raise families, the population and varied demand types for Flagstaff homes have never been greater.
Calm Before the Storm
From a homebuyer standpoint, we are seeing some of the more favorable conditions in the last six months than we’ve possibly seen in the last six years. We are seeing a bit more inventory, buyers getting concessions and price reductions. We are seeing a more paced market that allows people to go home and “sleep on it” before deciding to put an offer in. Most of this has been afforded to us given the inflation spike and rate spike – a cycle that we’re on the tail end of.
Again, anecdotally, I’m already hearing of increased multiple offer situations and same-day offer activity. While this isn’t widespread just yet, at some future point in time, this market is going to heat up again. Faster offers, more competitive offers and higher prices are on the horizon somewhere, and it could be this spring and summer.
Last Call for Locals
I’m pretty sure I’ve had a similar title to my column in the last 12+ months for my articles, but I honestly believe for many, this may be the last call. I don’t know if this last call is going to last three months, six months or a year. I don’t have that crystal ball, but what I do know is that I believe many will mistake the chaos of the world to again postpone their buying decision and I do believe Flagstaff is not going to wait for you.
We’re already seeing the demand surging and while inventory is increasing, I don’t see that happening here locally at the pace that pushes us closer to affordability. There are assistance programs, there are options and best-made plans in action that are going to help those who jump in sooner rather than later – homeowners with fixed mortgages, staying power in our community and builders of equity that can have power in the course of their future down the line. FBN
By Chris Hallows
For additional information or to schedule an appointment visit ChrisHallows.Benchmark.us or call 928-707-8572. The Flagstaff location is 824 W Rte 66 Suite A-3.
Chris Hallows is the Branch Manager & Sr. Mortgage Advisor of Benchmark Mortgage Flagstaff.
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