Sluggish, stagnant and anemic are words being used to describe Flagstaff and Coconino County’s projected job growth for the New Year; however, city and county officials remain hopeful.
Meantime, economists continue to expect no big surprises in 2014. “The unemployment rate will not improve dramatically,” said Northern Arizona University Economics Professor Dennis Foster.
In November, Arizona’s unemployment rate dropped four-tenths of a percentage point, from 8.2 percent in October to 7.8 percent in November. The national unemployment rate decreased three-tenths of a percentage point, from 7.3 percent in October to 7.0 percent in November. A year ago, the Arizona seasonally adjusted rate was 8.0 percent and the U.S. rate was 7.8 percent.
“It’s a cycle, just like all cycles of life,” said Coconino County Career Center Director Carol Curtis. “Typically, Arizona is about a year behind national trends and Flagstaff follows behind what’s happening in the greater Phoenix area.”
Economist Elliott Pollack says Arizona has regained 44 percent of the jobs lost since the recession began; Flagstaff has gained 72 percent of its lost jobs. “2014 will be better than 2013, and 2015 should be a good year,” he said.
“It’s disappointing,” said Curtis. “We’ve been working with important manufacturers in the county that have downsized or closed in the past year. But we do see local employers starting to look for new staff, and some positive movement in the labor market.”
Positive movement is happening in the field of healthcare. Northern Arizona Healthcare Human Resources Director Katie Stewart-McPherson says the job market is improving for operating room technicians and nurses with specialized skills such as pre-surgery and post-surgery nurses, and neonatal intensive care unit nurses.
“We have been able to find some of these specialized skilled candidates locally, but for positions like OR techs and specialized nurses, we are needing to look outside of the Flagstaff labor market,” she said.
For biotech and manufacturing jobs, city officials say the Flagstaff community has much to offer companies looking to move here or expand and hire locally. “We are a university town and we have a phenomenal science program. Businesses comment that the students who wear lab coats in town are the best in the nation and are highly desired in the workforce,” said City of Flagstaff Business Retention and Expansion Manager John Saltonstall. “At our core, we have a diverse and developed workforce across the spectrum. That workforce provides fertile ground for growing our own businesses. NACET [Northern Arizona Center for Entrepreneurship and Technology] is one of our partners that continues to successfully grow startup companies.”
Saltonstall says he remains confident that those industries will continue to grow and be able to navigate challenges with tax laws and healthcare. “If we’re able to grow companies that already reside in Flagstaff like W. L. Gore & Associates, Machine Solutions, FMC, Joy Cone, and Nestle Purina among others, along with the startups coming out of NACET and in town, we can generate greater stability for the whole community.”
Curtis shares in the optimistic outlook. “I am positive about the future because I know that our state, and the City of Flagstaff, Coconino County and other significant local economic partners such as ECoNA [Economic Collaborative of Northern Arizona], NACET, NAU [Northern Arizona University], CCC [Coconino Community College] and the Chamber of Commerce are taking the right steps to build our economic strength and move forward. As we all work together to build a springboard to success in the economy, the words of Robert Reich at the NAU Economic Outlook Conference will ring true: ‘Well-trained and dedicated employees are the only sustainable source of competitive strength.’ We get that in Coconino County and will come out of this period lean, but strong.” FBN
By Bonnie Stevens
Flagstaff Business News