These transformations in our electric infrastructure place Flagstaff residents in a dangerous energy squeeze.
Simultaneously, dramatic changes in electric power production are underway. Major portions of our reliable and diverse energy mix are being deactivated. APS is engaged in a massive program to replace dependable sources (coal and natural gas) with variable and vulnerable renewable power (wind and solar}. Variable solar only works during daylight hours and days are shortest in winter when Flagstaff needs power the most. Storing backup energy and converting DC to AC power will require new, unproven technologies. Solar is also most vulnerable in winter. Snow-covered panels produce no electricity and overcast skies can significantly reduce output. Worst of all, hail has destroyed entire solar fields. According to the APS timetables, renewables (wind and solar) could become the dominant energy sources for Flagstaff by 2035.
These transformations in our electric infrastructure place Flagstaff residents in a dangerous energy squeeze. Our greatest demand for electricity is in winter when renewable energy production is at a minimum. Cold temperatures will increase demand for running heat pumps and charging electric vehicles. The deadly combination of lower power production and higher winter demand puts Flagstaff at risk for extended power outages. Outages in all-electric homes during frigid winter temperatures will create life-threatening conditions, especially for the elderly. Remember, one of the CNP goals is to eliminate natural gas and wood stoves, heat sources that could be used as backup during outages.
Sweden has a similar winter climate to ours. The country has been a world leader in developing wind and solar power. Experience though, has led them to recognize the existential threat of renewables in cold weather. Their parliament recently abandoned green energy, opting instead to increase nuclear power.
Another threat posed by transitioning to wind and solar power is China’s dominance over solar panel and battery manufacturing and supply chains. Batteries are required to power electric vehicles and to stabilize the variability of solar and wind power production. Cobalt is an essential element in lithium battery production. China controls 73% of the world’s cobalt refining, 77% of battery cathode production and 92% of anode production. Similarly, China is responsible for the bulk of solar panel manufacturing. Polysilicon is the basic material in solar cells. 79% is produced in China along with 97% of wafers and 85% of solar cells. The U.S. then is dependent on China for renewable energy.
We should not be so naïve as to think China will not use control of these resources as a weapon against us, especially as our dependence on renewables grows. Manipulation is already happening in other areas. China also controls the supply chains for gallium and germanium, essential components in all microchip electronic devices. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is restricting the export of these raw materials as the chip war with the U.S. heats up.
All raw materials for building and operating coal and natural gas power plants are contained within the U.S. and not vulnerable to manipulation by China. By abandoning these power sources and replacing them with wind and solar, our country is sacrificing energy independence and giving control of electric energy production to China.
For more information about Climate Change, see Climate: The Movie: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bOAUsvVhgsU.
By Tom Pearson
Tom Pearson is the chairman of Flagstaff First. He is a retired Naval Officer with 28 years of service, 10 years aboard destroyers and replenishment ships and 18 years as a meteorologist and oceanographer. He currently serves on the board of the Sunshine Rescue Mission and volunteers as a telescope operator at Lowell Observatory.
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