The tragedy of Carbon Neutrality is that success requires across-the-board participation by the major polluters.
What exactly is carbon neutrality and what can it achieve? For Flagstaff, the goal of carbon neutrality means reducing the amount of CO2 we put into the atmosphere (emit) until it equals the amount of CO2 we can remove (sequester) from the atmosphere. When what we emit equals what we sequester, we’ve achieved “Carbon Neutrality.”
How do we get there? The city’s Sustainability Department has a $600 million plan as noted on page 46 of its Carbon Sustainability Plan, to convert homes, businesses and vehicles to electric heat and power. What CO2 emissions remain must be compensated for by sequestration. This can be accomplished biologically by trees and plants absorbing CO2 and by purchasing machines that remove CO2 from the atmosphere.
Some believe achieving carbon neutrality is the only way to protect the city from climate change. As Stefan Sommer of the Northern Arizona Climate Change Alliance has said, “…reducing our (carbon) footprint is the only way that we can reduce the risk of ongoing and future climate disasters.” But is this statement true? Will achieving carbon neutrality in Flagstaff, or the entire United States for that matter, change the trajectory of global warming and prevent climate disasters?
For carbon neutrality to impact climate change, a unified global effort is required, especially from the nations most responsible for CO2 emissions. Unfortunately, this coordinated action is not happening. Over half of world CO2 emissions are now produced by four countries: China, U.S., India and Russia, with China alone responsible for 30% of world emissions. U.S. production is less than 14% of the global total. The other three collectively contribute more than 50% of the total. Worse yet, China and India continue to build coal-fired power plants, growing their emissions each year. Of the four, only the U.S. is reducing emissions. A dramatic change in policy by the other three is required to make progress on global Carbon Neutrality.
Results from last December’s Global Climate Summit in Dubai (COP28) effectively decoupled Carbon Neutrality from Climate Change. China, India, Russia and a host of other countries refused to sign any commitment to reduce CO2 emissions. The tragedy of Carbon Neutrality is that success requires across-the-board participation by the major polluters. While the U.S. is making significant progress, our efforts are overwhelmed by the increasing pollution of other countries. Bottom line: until China and India make dramatic policy changes, no amount of emission reductions or sequestration in Flagstaff or for the entire U.S. will significantly change the trajectory of global warming. FBN
By Tom Pearson
Tom Pearson is the chairman of Flagstaff First. He is a retired Naval Officer with 28 years of service, 10 years aboard destroyers and replenishment ships and 18 years as a meteorologist and oceanographer. He currently serves on the board of the Sunshine Rescue Mission and volunteers as a telescope operator at Lowell Observatory.
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